Tuesday, July 5, 2011

RED will be eclipsed by Canon, just like Sun computers was eclipsed by PCs, as Moore's Law tends to favor companies aiming up, rather than companies aiming downwards.



RED will be eclipsed by Canon, just like Sun computers was eclipsed by PCs, as Moore's Law tends to favor companies aiming up, rather than companies aiming downwards. 

Far more filmmakers are using the Canon 5D and 7D than photographers are using the RED EPIC or Scarlet or original RED. 

And the next generation canons will only increase this trend. 

What happened to Sun Microsystems?  RED is the Sun Microsystems.  Canon is the Microsoft/Dell/Apple in this case.  Today's $299 laptop from Fry's electronics beats the $20,000 Sun Ultra Spark Station from ten years ago. 

Moore's law tends to favor companies reaching upwards far more than companies reaching down, as Moore's law represents a rising tide, not a falling sky.

The PC eclipsed Sun Microsystems, eating into its marketshare and leading to its end. 

Canon/Nikon will eclipse RED, eating into its marketshare while surfing Moore's law on up, and leading to its end. 

Moore's Law represents a rising tide, not a falling sky, so even though RED might be reaching down with the EPIC, Canon and Nikon will easily beat it in price and functionality as they reach up with their next models, preserving their own vast markets while also eating into RED's markets.

Sun's core business was servers, not desktops nor software!  And their servers were replaced by PCs, due to Moore's law!  I was talking about the modelmayhem servers being PCs, not suns. 
http://www.siliconvalley.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=2358541

and now SUN/JAVA has been delisted! 
 http://tech-mba.blogspot.com/2010/01/java-delisted.html

This is because Moore's law eroded and killed Sun's marketshare in the high-end serverspace (their core business) with inexpensive PCs , just like Moore's law will erode and kill RED's marketshare in higher-end filmmaking with inexpensive Canons. 

This is already happening.  The Canon 5d mark iii and mark iv will augment the rate of this.

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2 comments:

  1. Most ridiculous and stupid article I have read as of yet. Misleading title, poor execution, flimsy logic and disregard for knowledge of film making. RED is aiming only upward and is steadily being adopted as the industry standard for Hollywood Movie Making. Canon is a consumer-based solution and always has been. They have no intention to eat into RED's market share and the fact that you think so simply shows ignorance and a desire to market your own products. I'm absolutely positive you've never shot on RED and that you have no experience in film-making just based upon how naive your articles are.

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  2. Yes--you are right. I have never shot on a Red Scarlet.

    http://vimeo.com/groups/nexvg10/forumthread:236402
    http://www.freshdv.com/2008/09/red-scarlet-scrubbed-redesigned.html
    http://www.crafted.com.au/blog/2008/11/25/red-camera-nothing-but-hype/

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